22 Apr 2024 | News & Feature

Trade: Will the bumper surplus persist?

  • The trade surplus increased to USD 4.47 Bn in March 2024, driven by a 16.40% MoM (-4.19% YoY) surge in exports, and a 2.60% MoM (-12.76% YoY) decline in imports.
  • Exports increased mainly due to heightened gold demand from China and recovery in prices of other metals including tin, copper, and nickel. However, exports of coal remain subdued due to ample supply in China.
  • Meanwhile, the decline in imports was mainly driven by capital goods, while consumer goods imports declined the least. This suggests a shifting growth pattern from one led by investment to that led by consumption.
  • The overall impact of the oil price rally to Indonesia is still uncertain since the correlation between oil and other commodities is imperfect.
  • BI might need to adopt a flexible and realistic move to bolster the Rupiah, especially if the trade balance falters in the coming months.