- The US 10-Year Treasury yield is currently stable around 4.32% as markets anticipate several key economic events. Forecasts suggest the yield will rise and stabilize within a 4.48%-4.68% range by the end of the year.
- This upward pressure is driven by factors such as the Fed's quantitative tightening, a deteriorating US fiscal outlook, and the inflationary impact of tariffs. Conversely, potential downward pressures include the possibility of more moderate tariff implementation and future regulatory changes (GENIUS Act and relaxation of SLR), though their timing is uncertain.
- Due to a narrowing yield differential over the past month, Bank Indonesia is expected to wait for the Fed to begin its own easing cycle before considering rate cuts.
