11 Dec 2025 | News & Feature

FOMC: Schrödinger’s cut

  • The Fed lowered the Fed Funds Rate by 25 bps to 3.50%-3.75% during today's FOMC meeting, but the vote at the meeting was more divided than ever, casting doubt on the certainty of further cuts.
  • The Fed's median projection still indicates one more rate cut next year, with next year GDP forecast revised up significantly to 2.3%.
  • The launch of Reserve Management Program is more of a balancing act against the risks from the upcoming tax season.
  • It is prudent to wait until more data on US inflation and labor market provides clarity on whether the prospect of another cut is dead or very much alive, much like Schrödinger's cat.