- Indonesia's trade surplus recovered to USD 1.28 Bn in Feb-26, driven by a contraction in imports (-1.45% MoM) alongside stagnant exports (0.05% MoM).
- The stagnation in export performance was partly driven by policy adjustments, such as coal production cuts and the implementation of export tariffs on gold. Meanwhile, the slowdown in imports was partly attributable to fewer working days.
- On an annual basis, import growth continues to reflect a recovery in the real sector. Imports of consumer and capital goods rose sharply, driven in part by robust government spending on flagship programs.
- Looking ahead, the outlook for trade is increasingly mixed. Higher commodity prices, stemming from the US-Iran conflict, could have a net positive effect on Indonesia's trade performance. However, this windfall would be offset by slowing global growth should the conflict escalate further and persist longer.
