- High interest rates in the US (and expensive USD) may continue to be a concern for the global economy, as the US government is expected to boost its debt issuance. At the same time, the sustained growth momentum and returning inflationary pressures mean that the Fed may need to adjust its rate cut signal.
- Further stimulus interventions may not be enough to turn the slowing trend in China’s loan growth, given its lingering property and debt crises. Still-muted domestic demand will continue to force Chinese manufacturers to sell cheaply to the export market, thus threatening manufacturers in other economies.
- The uncertain outlook for global manufacturing activities translates negatively to commodity prices, although a supply-driven price spike remains a possibility for some commodities.
- The combination of still-high global rates and sidelining commodity prices highlight the unideal external condition the Indonesian economy faces in 2025, possibly forcing the economy to seek more growth momentum within its internal market.