06 Aug 2024 | News & Feature

GDP: A flotilla of rafts

  • GDP growth declined more modestly than anticipated, to 5.05% YoY. Most of the positive drivers seemed to be one-off occurrences, including delayed harvest season, a short-lived metal boom, and a tourism boom thanks to large number of public holidays.
  • The overall impression of a broad-based manufacturing slowdown was confirmed, except for the (capital-intensive) metals and chemicals subsectors.
  • Nominal GDP growth (5.99% YoY) finally climbs above real growth as base effect from last year’s coal price plunge faded. However, we expect nominal growth to stay within the 6 – 8% range for the year, given the weak liquidity growth and waning CAPEX cycle.
  • Our big data indices are flagging a clear risk of economic slowdown in Q3, but uncertainties over political outcomes and global financial flows are limiting the room for policymakers to react – at least until the dust settles at the end of the year.