Category News : {2E3BF15A-CA11-48C7-88FC-C1420F492808} - Category 1;
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GDP growth declined more modestly than anticipated, to 5.05% YoY. Most of the positive drivers seemed to be one-off occurrences, including delayed harvest season, a short-lived metal boom, and a tourism boom thanks to large number of public holidays.
- GDP growth declined more modestly than anticipated, to 5.05% YoY. Most of the positive drivers seemed to be one-off occurrences, including delayed harvest season, a short-lived metal boom, and a tourism boom thanks to large number of public holidays.
- The overall impression of a broad-based manufacturing slowdown was confirmed, except for the (capital-intensive) metals and chemicals subsectors.
- Nominal GDP growth (5.99% YoY) finally climbs above real growth as base effect from last year’s coal price plunge faded. However, we expect nominal growth to stay within the 6 – 8% range for the year, given the weak liquidity growth and waning CAPEX cycle.
- Our big data indices are flagging a clear risk of economic slowdown in Q3, but uncertainties over political outcomes and global financial flows are limiting the room for policymakers to react – at least until the dust settles at the end of the year.
