01 Apr 2024 | News & Feature

CPI: Short-term surge, fundamental problem

  • Inflation surged to 3.05% YoY (0.52% MoM) in Mar-24, primarily driven by food prices (rice, eggs, and chicken) due to supply issues exacerbated by heightened demand during Ramadan and upcoming Lebaran festivities.
  • Core inflation experienced a slight uptick to 1.77% YoY, indicating strong consumption among low-income groups, amid concern over weak durable consumption that probably reflects the pattern of upper- and middle-class conservative spending.
  • BI is anticipated to adopt additional measures to boost growth, possibly by expanding macroprudential incentives (KLM). However, weak deposit growth resulting from low commodity prices suggests that overt easing through the BI Rate is unlikely until the Fed initiates rate cuts.