01 Jul 2021 | News & Feature

Inflation: A higher floor and a lower ceiling for growth

  • Indonesia’s CPI declined by 0.16% MoM as demand wound down from its Lebaran high.
  • The recent surge in cases would likely present more of a speed bump rather than a deep economic plunge akin to last year. India’s economic performance in the past few months – which did decline but nowhere close to the drop last year – is instructive in this regard.
  • In the long term however, a combination of a relatively slow pace of vaccination as well as newer, more virulent strains of Covid means that Indonesia’s prospects of an American or Chinese style rebound appear to be slim.