- The large trade surplus (USD 2.19 Bn) and export numbers (USD 18.48 Bn) in April is the result of an ongoing commodity boom.
- Like the post-GFC boom, the current boom is the product of US and China policies, but the timeline appears to be accelerated.
- The recent pullback of commodity prices suggests an ever-present fear of tapering in the global market, although we think that significant tightening in US policy would probably only happen in 2022.
- Strong imports, particularly of consumer goods, hint at strong domestic demand recovery, although it is not fully clear if the momentum would be carried as strongly into H2-21.
- While the current account deficit (CAD) will likely widen, a severe macro adjustment (and hasty exit from the current fiscal/monetary policies a la 2013-15) need not necessarily befall Indonesia.
