Jakarta, 24 February 2025 - Indonesia's economy is expected to grow positively in 2025 despite the challenges. BCA Chief Economist, David Sumual, explained that government policies and programs can provide significant leverage for Indonesia's economic growth.
Several sectors, including property, transportation, logistics, food, beverages, and packaging are projected to be driven by government policies, which can catalyze national economic growth. Additionally, there is the potential for increased liquidity due to the Foreign Exchange Proceeds policy.
"Obviously, those related to property and housing have many sub-sectors associated with them, and they are expected to move positively. Then there are the food and beverage sectors and their sub- sectors, including transportation, logistics, packaging, and wrapping, which will also be positively impacted," said David Sumual during the Mini Studio session 'Market Outlook 2025: Trump Effect, Trade Potential, and Indonesia's Opportunities' at the BCA Expoversary 2025.
David projects that Indonesia's economic growth has the potential to reach 4.8% - 5% in 2025. In addition to the government's catalysts, the growth of the productive population, which averages 3% per year, has the potential to positively impact the economy. The reason is that Indonesia's economic characteristic is a consumer-driven economy. This means that the increasing population can drive higher consumption, and have a positive impact on economic growth.
“[Sectors] related to the consumer-driven economy will still perform well. However, accelerating growth requires new catalysts to further boost household spending. The key is attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into labor-intensive sectors, particularly manufacturing. If we can achieve this, consumer spending will strengthen even further. There are still many potential catalysts to watch for in 2025. But even without them, economic growth of 4.8% - 5% should still be attainable,” he stated.
BCA Sekuritas Head of Research, Andre Benas, also expressed his optimism, particularly regarding the capital market. According to him, the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) has the potential to rebound to the 7,000 level, ranging between 7,200 and 7,700. Andre Benas believes that the banking sector will continue to be a key driver of the IHSG in 2025. "If we talk about sectors, the one with the strongest growth potential is still being driven by financial services, particularly banks," said Andre.
Despite their optimism, both David Sumual and Andre Benas acknowledged that the first semester of 2025 will still be filled with uncertainties and challenges. David explained that there are several challenges to Indonesia's economic growth, such as geopolitical conditions, exchange rates, and the protectionist policies of US President Donald Trump.
“Global uncertainty remains quite high, but there are still several catalysts that give us reasons to be optimistic. For example, some government policies are quite groundbreaking,” said David.
Amidst uncertain conditions, Andre Benas reminds retail investors not to succumb to FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) when investing. According to him, it is important for retail investors to closely examine the fundamentals of an instrument, as well as the economic conditions, before placing their capital in a particular investment instrument.
"I think the rest depends on each individual's risk appetite. What I find interesting are money market instruments, such as money market mutual funds or even bonds. Recently, there has been a new retail bond offering, which is quite attractive. I believe its yield is the highest it has been in the past few years," said David Sumual.
Picture Information 1:
BCA Economists and BCA Sekuritas Reveal Indonesia’s Economic Potential and Challenges in 2025 – BCA Chief Economist, David Sumual (left), and BCA Sekuritas Head of Research, Andre Benas (center), during the Mini Studio session ‘Market Outlook 2025: Trump Effect, Trade Potential, and Indonesia's Opportunities’ at BCA Expoversary 2025. Indonesia’s economy is expected to grow positively in 2025 despite the challenges. Several sectors, including property, transportation, logistics, food and beverages, and packaging, are projected to benefit from government policies, serving as catalysts for national economic growth. Additionally, there is potential for increased liquidity due to the Foreign Exchange Proceeds policy.
*****
About PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (as of 31 December 2024)
BCA is one of the leading commercial banks in Indonesia with the core business of transaction banking. BCA also offers a full range of financial services in corporate, SME, and commercial segments. By the end of December 2024, BCA has the privilege of serving more than 41 million customer accounts, processing around 98.4 million daily transactions through a network of 1.264 branches, 19.543 ATMs, as well as internet & mobile banking services and Halo BCA contact center that can be accessed 24 hours. BCA’s presence is complemented by a number of subsidiaries focusing on vehicle financing, sharia banking, securities, general and life insurance, digital bank, remittance, as well as venture capital. BCA is committed to building lasting relationships with customers, putting people first, and making a positive impact on society at large. With more than 27.000 employees, BCA's vision is to be the bank of choice and a major pillar of the Indonesia economy.
PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
Group Corporate Communication and Social Responsibility - CSR
Corporate Communication
Address : Jl. MH Thamrin No. 1
Menara BCA Lt. 22
Jakarta Pusat 10310
Telephone : (021) 2358-8000
Fax : (021) 2358-8339
E-mail : corcom_bca@bca.co.id
