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04 Nov 2025 | News & Feature

International Trade: The surplus that refused to die

  • Indonesia’s trade surplus narrowed to USD 4.34 Bn in Sep-25 (USD 5.49 Bn in Aug-25), above market expectations of USD 3.20 Bn.
  • The contraction in exports (-1.14% MoM) was anticipated, considering fading frontloading effects of tariff implementation and weakening coal exports.
  • Rising imports (4.42% MoM) coincide with recovering private business spendings, in line with expansionary manufacturing PMI.
  • Looking ahead, we foresee a continuing gradual moderation in surplus, with upcoming government programs pushing imports, while easing tension in trade may possibly support exports.

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