- Indonesia’s trade surplus sharply declined to USD 0.95 bn in Jan-26, mainly due to seasonality.
- Strong YoY import growth and an expansionary PMI signal that domestic demand and early-year momentum remain solid.
- The forward-looking outlook is mixed, potential global trade gains from tariff rollbacks are being offset by domestic commodity production limits and rising US-Israel-Iran tensions, likely putting pressure on Indonesia’s current account, fiscal stance, currency, and monetary policy flexibility.
