- GDP growth accelerated to to 5.12% YoY in Q2-2025, driven by an acceleration across all expenditure components, with a particularly sharp acceleration in investment growth.
- Government spending in H2 will likely be a support toward GDP growth, while net trade are expected to contribute less going forward.
- Barring any major domestic or external shocks, FY25 GDP growth could reach the 4.9% - 5.0% range.
- Stronger-than-expected Q2 data and improving outlook reduce the urgency for BI to cut rates, however BI will likely align its policy path with the Fed for the rest of the year.
