- Indonesia recorded USD 4.1 Bn trade surplus in June, slightly lower than USD 4.3 Bn in May as both exports (-4.78% MoM) and imports (-4.82% MoM) declined.
- CPO exports grew by 27.03% MoM, partially buoyed by normalizing prices; while coal and metals export contracted.
- Contraction in monthly imports sharpest in raw materials and capital goods. However, capital goods recorded acceleration in yearly growth.
- Trade surplus likely to narrow in H2-25 as exports face pressure from US tariffs and declining commodity prices, while imports remain robust due to recovery in both consumer and government spending. In spite of these, we maintain our CAD forecast at 1% of GDP.
