- BI cut its policy rate to 5.25% in July 2025 amidst weakening real sectors and improving domestic liquidity.
- US-ID today's trade deal reduces the uncertainty, but concern about upcoming pressures on commodity remains.
- Accelerated third-party funds growth (6.96% YoY vs 4.29% YoY in May) and anticipated fiscal spending may boost domestic spending in latter half of 2025.
- We expect one more cut in 2025, depending on Rupiah trajectory and Fed rate outlook.
