- We forecast Indonesia’s GDP growth to accelerate to 5.26% YoY in Q4-25, supported by a broad-based recovery in domestic demand as fiscal and monetary policy transmission becomes more visible toward year-end.
- Household consumption and government spending emerged as key growth drivers, with internal spending indicators rebounding sharply and government spending accelerating in Q4.
- Investment activity strengthened alongside government programs, as investment loan growth spiked by end-2025 and state banks’ lending accelerated.
- Last year's low base may further support the growth momentum coming into early 2026, in addition to accelerating government spending focusing on stimulus.
