- Indonesia logged a substantial USD 3.36 Bn surplus in Sep-26, propelled by exports reaching USD 27.6 Bn (+11.9% YoY). Growth was concentrated in pre-Diwali CPO sales to India, rebounding gold shipments, and a 20% surge in electrical machinery, as shipments diverted toward the EU and non-traditional markets.
- Import growth slowed to 18.4% YoY, dominated by Chinese machinery for data centers, EVs, and HPAL smelters. Crucially, oil and gas imports dropped despite Brent exceeding $100/bbl. This points to deferred inventory replenishment, raising the risk of an expensive import spike in October.
- Seasonal export moderation and a looming rebound in costly oil imports will narrow the surplus, pressuring the Rupiah and sovereign yields. Consequently, we maintain our view that Bank Indonesia may deliver another policy rate hike to anchor external stability.
