- Global risk aversion intensified amid renewed Middle East tensions, rising oil prices, concerns over AI profitability, and unrest across Europe.
- We expect real GDP growth to ease to 5.15% YoY in Q3, from 5.29% in Q2, as indicators point to a slowdown in consumption and investment.
- We maintain our 2026 growth forecast at 5.3%, expecting a Q4 rebound supported by China’s manufacturing recovery and BI’s planned liquidity injection.
