- Indonesia's CPI inflation reached 3.34% YoY (0.44% MoM) in Jun-26, driven by higher administered prices following the adjustment in non-subsidized fuel prices.
- Looking ahead, Rupiah volatility and the potential emergence of El Niño remain the key upside risks to inflation.
- We expect Bank Indonesia to remain hawkish, with a cumulative 50 bps policy rate hike from the current level during 2026.
