- Indonesia’s real GDP growth decelerated to 4.95% YoY in Q3-2024, hindered by flat household consumption as the government delayed the realisation of social spending. Fortunately, stable inflation and fiscal handouts in Q4-2024 may help turn the consumption trend upwards.
- Government-driven projects continue to propel fixed-asset investment growth higher, despite the slowing private sector investment. However, the shift in the government’s fiscal preference may dampen FAI growth going forward.
- Despite accelerating to 6.49% YoY, Indonesia’s nominal GDP growth may not recover to double-digit levels without a meaningful rally in the global commodity market and a further shift in Bank Indonesia’s policy stance.
