- Indonesia’s trade surplus narrowed to USD 2.02 Bn, resulting from decreasing exports by 8.06% YoY (-8.34% MoM) and slightly rising imports by 0.36% YoY (-3.13% MoM).
- The decline in exports was mainly caused by falling shipments of coal and mineral ores amid oversupply in China, albeit slightly offset by the impact of “downstreaming” as before.
- Imports declined after their seasonal peak at the end of last year, but may rise again given a potential recovery in consumption momentum, still-robust FAI, and the need for further rice imports.
- The trade and current account balances may see a modest decline in 2024, as Indonesia’s terms of trade worsens further while robust growth (relative to global) translates to stronger imports.
