- The triple shocks from the FOMC, US Treasury QRA, and fear of renewed banking crisis are rattling the US and global market, potentially leading to less favorable financial conditions and less room of rate cuts for EM countries like Indonesia
- The Fed appears to dismiss the chance of a March rate cut, although it remains open to the possibility of pivot in a data-dependent manner.
- Issuance of US federal debt for the next three months remains large and is skewed towards long-term instruments, potentially weighing down on risk asset valuations.
- In the short-term, the potential rise in LT yields are masked by concerns over large losses to a regional US bank (NYCB), although it is yet unclear if it is a systemic issue.
