- Indonesia recorded a modest USD 2.52 Bn trade surplus in December 2025, as a massive jump in imports outpaced strong export growth. The import surge was led by record-high capital goods imports, which are expected to remain elevated into the start of 2026.
- Export growth was driven by high commodity prices and resilient demand from key partners like China, India, and US. The future export outlook is supported by positive US tariff negotiations and China's economic consumption-investment rebalancing plans.
- Despite a positive export picture, the overall trade surplus is expected to be lower in 2026. Key risks include new domestic regulations limiting commodity exports and a strengthening US dollar that could limit price gains.
