- Trade surplus widened to USD 4.17bn in July, supported by robust export growth and softer imports.
- Export gains were driven by higher commodity prices and continued US front-loading ahead of tariffs, while shipments to China remained weak.
- Imports surged in crude oil and machinery, with capital goods growth consistent with stronger government spending and manufacturing recovery.
- Looking ahead, fading tariff effects, sluggish Chinese demand, and Rupiah depreciation pose risks, suggesting the surplus may narrow and policy space for BI hinge more on Fed easing.
